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Nigeria exited recession when second quarter (Q2) GDP stats were released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). However, many observers called for caution waiting for subsequent quarters to see the emerging trend, This is turning out to be positive as Q3 figures just released by the NBS shows: “the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew in Q3 2017 by 1.40% (year-on-year) in real terms, the second consecutive positive growth since the emergence of the economy from recession in Q2 2017. This growth is 3.74% points higher than the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2016 ( -2.34%) and higher by 0.68% points from the rate recorded in the preceding quarter, which was revised to 0.72% from 0.55% (Q2 was revised following revisions by NNPC to oil output and hence led to revisions to Oil GDP) . Quarter on quarter, real GDP growth was 8.97%.
“Year to date Real GDP growth stands at 0.43%.”
The NBS data shows that the oil sector is propelling the economy’s recovery explaining it thus:
“Real growth of the oil sector was 25.89% (year-on-year) in Q3 2017. This represents an increase of 48.92% relative to rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2016. Growth also increased by 22.36% when compared to Q2 2017 which was revised from 1.64% to 3.53%. Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector grew by 21.10% in Q3 2017 As a share of the economy, the Oil sector contributed 10.04% of total real GDP in Q3 2017, up from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2016 and up from the preceding quarter, where it contributed 8.09% and 9.04% to GDP respectively.”
However the non-oil sector of the economy is shrinking. NBS explains:
“The non-oil sector grew by -0.76% in real terms during the reference quarter. This is lower by -0.79% point compared to the rate recorded same quarter, 2016 and -1.20% point lower than in the second quarter of 2017.(See Figure 3). This sector was driven this quarter mainly by Agriculture (Crop), Other services and Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply. In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 89.96% to the nation’s GDP, lower than the share recorded in the third quarter of 2016 (91.91%) and in the second quarter of 2017 (90.96%).”
So, while the government is trying to diversify the economy, oil still remains critical to it. It may take a long time before Nigeria stops its dependence on oil.
You can get more statistics of the Nigerian economy here.